The Importance of winning the 24/25 Super League for Panathinaikos

Let me start by addressing the elephant in the room. By May 2025, when the 2024/25 Greek Super League (SLGR) season ends and a champion is crowned, it will mark 15 years since PAO’s last league title. For a club with the stature and history of Panathinaikos, that is almost unfathomable. But we’re also well aware of the rollercoaster and “dark ages” of the 2010s. In May 2025, if we are not celebrating the title drought ending at 15 long years, we will be lamenting over it extending to 16 long-er years. And as important as ending this long drought is, the most important thing about winning the Super League this season isn’t simply just to say “we finally ended the title drought”. Getting over this hump would be critical and would change the short and long-term trajectory of the club.

Over the past few years, Panathinaikos fans have been delighted to see the team back in Europe, where its offered so many memorable nights and results, and ultimately made a name for itself. The 2010s were nothing like this, which included a 5 year European absence thanks to the financial issues at the club and subsequent UEFA bans. But in the summer of 2022, that all came to an end and Panathinaikos was back on the European stage. Unfortunately it was short lived as the team exited early at the hands of Salvia Prague. Since the Tryfilli returned to Europe in 2022, these have been the opponents drawn in European qualifying rounds (all competitions):

• Slavia Prague

• Dnipro

• Marseille

• Braga

• Botev Plovdiv

• Ajax

• Lens 

If you exclude 2nd qualifying rounds, and look at the draws for 3rd qual. rounds and play-offs:

• Slavia Prague

• Marseille

• Braga

• Ajax

• Lens

These teams are no joke, especially from the second list. Yet, these are the teams we’ve been tasked with beating year after year to reach the league stage (formerly “group stage”) of European competitions (all the way from the top level Champions League, to the lowest of Conference League). We can complain all we want that we get “hard draws” but there is more to this story. The reality is, yes, we have gotten some hard draws. Marseille and Braga in 2023 were some of the hardest teams we could’ve drawn in their respective pools. Likewise with Ajax and Lens in 2024. But the reality is also this: these difficult draws are a result of that 5-year European absence, and it’s something we have to now overcome.

UEFA club coefficients are calculated based on a given club’s European output in the previous 5 seasons. Upon Panathinaikos’ return to Europe, the team had the lowest possible club coefficient for a Greek club due to the 5 year European absence (no coefficient points accumulated over that time). You can see this in the image below, with the blanks prior to 2022/23 reflecting the European absence and no added club coefficient points. Upon the team's European return in 2022, coefficient points (2,000) were once again starting to accumulate, slowly. The total points for the 2023/24 season are the sum of the 5 years prior (2018-23, shown below), so the blank 4 years are felt much more than the few added in 22/23.

This directly affects the qualifying draws, as clubs with the lower coefficients are placed in the ‘unseeded’ pots, while clubs with the higher coefficients are in the ‘seeded’ pots. When the draws for the matchups happen, seeded clubs can only be drawn against unseeded clubs, which in most cases pits a stronger team against a weaker team. The primary way an unseeded club can become seeded throughout the qualifying rounds in a given season is if they beat their seeded opponent, and they subsequently take the seeded club’s coefficient in the next qualifying round. For example, this would have been the case if Panathinaikos eliminated Ajax in the Europa League 3rd qualifying round, entering the UEL play-offs with Ajax’s coefficient of 67,000 and as a result PAO would become a seeded team in that qualifying round.

Over time, the club’s goal is to rebuild the coefficient and eventually get back to the seeded qualifying pots without needing to “steal” another club’s higher coefficient via eliminating them. Being on the seeded side from the outset leads to getting more favorable draws against the unseeded teams and making European qualification more straightforward.

Why does winning the league matter then? Simply put, the SLGR champion has the easiest path to the European league stages. In the current 24/25 season, five Greek clubs will get European tickets (aka five Greek clubs will start the 25/26 season in some level of European competition). The champion will start their European run in the Champions League 3rd qualifying round (or worst case 2nd UCL qual. round, dependent on other domestic league results, domestic cup champions, etc.). If the champion starts in UCL 3rd qual. round, European league/group stage football is confirmed for them. Even in the worst scenario of starting in UCL 2nd qual. round, European league stage is not guaranteed for the champion, but it is still very likely. In the event the champion starts in the 2nd UCL qual. round, they still only need 1 out of 3 advancements in the qualifying rounds to secure European league stage. Contrast this to a Greek team that starts in Conference League 2nd qualifying round that needs 3 out of 3 qualifications to secure league stage. In other words, the champion will almost certainly be in a European league stage AND has the best chance to participate in a European league stage compared to the Greek teams who finish 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.

Confirmed (or near-confirmed) European league stage means a club will certainly raise its coefficient, for multiple reasons:

• Wins and draws grant coefficient points

• Each advancement in the qualifying rounds of any European competition grants coefficient points (advancing from 2nd qual. round to 3rd qual. round grants coefficient points, and so on)

• Entry into European league stage grants coefficient points

Basically, we can sum this up as: More games played = more chances to raise the coefficient.

Look at PAO’s return to Europe in 2022. We were drawn against the seeded club Slavia Prague in the Conference League 3rd qualifying round. The task was not easy, especially coming off of the European hiatus. To qualify for Conference League proper, the club needed to secure 2/2 qualifications in the qualifying rounds, with no room to slip up. Unfortunately it did not play out like that, and the team was eliminated by Slavia and very few coefficient points were gained, ultimately not helping us climb out of the coefficient ditch that was created due to the 5 year European absence. If, let’s say, we had started that 2022/23 European campaign at a higher level (UCL or UEL), we would still have been unseeded, but would’ve had more opportunities to qualify for the group stages due to having the fallback of the lower European competitions. But starting at a higher European competition would only have been possible with a better league finish the season prior (2021/22). As previously noted, the champion who starts in UCL qualifying has better chances to secure European League stage compared to the SLGR 2nd-5th place finishers.

Therein lies the immense importance of Panathinaikos winning the Super League not only this season, but in subsequent seasons also. Since we’re in a position with a weak coefficient, we cannot afford to start in the Conference League qualifying rounds as an unseeded team (which would be the case with a 3rd-5th place SLGR finish in 24/25). Take a look at some of the strongest seeded opponents in this year’s Conference League play-off round:

• Chelsea

• Lens

• Real Betis

• Fiorentina

• Copenhagen

• Trabzonspor

• Gent

Even in Europe’s third and lowest club competition, these are the quality of teams you might face in order to get into the league stage if you’re unseeded. Unfortunately, we drew what I perceive as the 2nd hardest possible opponent on paper from the seeded teams. Of course, there are also seeded teams who are weaker than the ones listed above. But if you’re unseeded, the door is open to draw anyone from the seeded side, from the Chelseas and Lenses to the more traditionally lower sides. And at that point you’re just relying on luck and hoping you avoid these stronger seeded teams. This goes to show the importance of not only raising the club’s coefficient over time to become a seeded team again, but also the importance of not starting your European campaign in Conference League, where you don’t have lower competitions to fall back on.

Specifically, the 24/25 Greek champion is guaranteed 4-6 games next season in the European qualifying rounds plus 6-8 games in the league stage proper. That’s 10-14 European matches at the minimum in which the club can raise it’s coefficient points via wins, draws, and successful advancements to later rounds. The contrary: the Greek club who finishes 3rd/4th/5th, enters Europe in the Conference League qualifying rounds AND is also unseeded, could play as little as 2 European matches (exactly what happened to Panathinaikos in 2022). The difference is clear. As many as 14 confirmed European matches vs only 2 confirmed European matches. That is the difference (in European terms) between winning the domestic league and finishing 3rd or below. Again, more games = more chances to raise the coefficient, and more chances to significantly raise the coefficient quickly.

Only by playing more European matches will the club’s coefficient increase. Therefore, the worst thing for the club currently is being limited to just a few European games a season, like in 2022. Unfortunately, that might also be the case this 2024/25 season in the event of elimination from Lens and Europe altogether. And that’s a result of last year’s domestic league finish. The 4th place league finish for PAO last season granted the worst European ticket available for a Greek club. Even with the added benefit of the domestic cup title for PAO, we still might face an early European exit and for yet another season add very few coefficient points, prolonging our stay as an unseeded club in future years. The path to playing more European matches is finishing higher in the domestic league, and specifically finishing 1st. Even a 2nd place finish grants more of a safety cushion than the lower finishes, but not as much as the 1st place finish gets with potential confirmed European league stage next season.

The objective is clear. The players, coach, management and ownership must do everything in their power to set the club up for European success next season. They must do everything in their power to ensure Panathinaikos plays as many European games as possible next season. And that starts with them doing everything in their power to finally win the league again. For now, Lens stands in the way of this year’s European campaign and the importance of progressing cannot be overstated. But simultaneously, the league conquest begins. A 1st place finish in this conquest will ensure that next season we don't face as challenging of a European qualifying task as we’re up against this season.

-Alex (@alexcv08)