How will the Ethniki’s qualifying failure impact the PAO internationals?

It has been a sad stretch of days for fans of the Ethniki Omada (“National Team”). In a lackluster performance in Tbilisi against Georgia, the Ethniki failed to win their most important match in arguably ten years, and as a result will not feature at Euro 2024. A successful Nations League campaign and 5-0 thrashing of Kazakhstan in Athens was effectively wasted as the Euro 2024 dream was squashed in perhaps the cruelest way, a penalty shootout. 

Although this pain will stick until the Euro and for many fans it will linger even beyond that, it’s time to divert all our attention to club football, which returns this weekend. The positive is that Panathinaikos is riding a high, having beat Olympiakos emphatically 3-1 in Piraeus before the break. As a result, the team is very much in the thick of not only the Cup final in late May but also one of the most intriguing title races in recent memory. This, of course, means that our Greek internationals—Fotis Ioannidis, Tasos Bakasetas and Zeca Rodrigues—will return to Panathinaikos and help guide the team in the chase for the Double. 

 

An inevitable question following the international break is how the Ethniki’s misstep will impact the players at club level. All of the Big 4 clubs in Greece are faced with this question, as they all have representatives in the national team. What sets PAO apart, however, is that they are the only Big 4 club to boast two players in the Ethniki starting XI (Foti and Baka) in the Nations League playoffs, including the latter being the Ethniki captain. The national team’s failure will certainly remain on the players’ minds, but how much will it negatively affect their psychology and performances as we enter the most crucial part of the club campaign? 

 

The answer may not be the same for both Ioannidis and Bakasetas. Foti, at 24 years old, is a young and up-and-coming talent for both Panathinaikos and the national team. He recently solidified himself as the go-to option at the helm of the Ethniki attack and is being scouted heavily by clubs outside of Greece for a big money transfer. Although not featuring at his first major tournament this summer will hurt, he has a (hopefully) long international career ahead of him with multiple chances to qualify for major tournaments down the road. Baka, on the other hand, is six years his senior. He also has not played at a major tournament, but his time is running out. Turning 31 in June, he will be 33 come World Cup 2026, and that is likely to be his last chance at a tournament appearance with Greece. Having a career clock that is ticking and being the Ethniki captain, he will undoubtedly feel this current failure more than the average Ethniki player, if not more than anyone. This could point to a transference in emotions from national team to club level more so for Baka compared to Foti. 

 

It is also worth considering each player’s form leading up to the return of club football. Prior to the international break, Foti was riding a hot streak. He had scored or assisted in four straight games, including a brace in that important 3-1 win in Piraeus most recently. On the contrary, Baka hasn’t been as effective of late. Although he also netted a goal in the 3-1 win against Olympiakos, his performances in the recent stretch of games have not been as game-defining as they were early on in his PAO career, when he arrived in January. It’s true that Foti and Baka can’t be compared like-for-like in terms of how often they are on the scoresheet due to positional differences, but Baka’s recent drop in form goes beyond that. He also picked up a critical red card in the first leg of the cup semi-final which resulted in him missing a subsequent game. The sending off came because of an off-the-ball altercation with PAOK’s Taison, while PAO was leading 1-0 late in the match. This needless error in judgement points to Baka not having a clear head in the moment and possible mental fatigue, letting emotions get the better of him at a time where he should be able to keep himself composed. Although the red card didn’t end up affecting the reverse leg of the cup fixture, it resulted in him missing a league game where we dropped points to Lamia at home. Even though Panathinaikos as a team went into the international break on a high, the two players left on slightly different notes based on their outputs over the past month or so. As a result, the underwhelming outcome with the Ethniki could therefore affect them differently and in varying magnitudes. 

 

The fact of the matter is that a quick, 5-day turnaround from Tuesday’s Ethniki disappointment does not help either player, as both must be ready to perform in a demanding environment at home in Leoforos against PAOK who are slightly ahead in the league table. Both players will be required to put Tuesday’s game behind them as much as is possible. For this, I also look at coach Fatih Terim to play his part. To some it may seem that he has no vested interest in Greece making it to the Euros. However, being the coach to these players at club level, he undoubtedly wants to see them perform on the biggest stage to showcase their talents, face challenging opposition, and push themselves to grow as players. Terim is a former national team coach of Turkey himself, so he knows firsthand and will recognize how the failure to qualify for Euro 2024 will feel for Ioannidis, Bakasetas and Zeca. We’ve learned over the months we’ve spent with Terim that one of his key traits is his ability to motivate his players, and I expect this to factor into the trio returning to Panathinaikos this week. Further, Terim was a major proponent in developing a sports psychology outlook at Galatasaray during his time there. Regardless of if such a unit is present at Panathinaikos currently, it speaks to the importance that he, as a coach, sees in how players’ psychological states are handled, especially after major disappointments. 

 

If I had to pick one player out of Panathinaikos’ Greek internationals that would be most affected by the Ethniki’s failure to qualify for this summer’s Euro, to the point where it could bleed into club performances, it would be Bakasetas. There is enough reason to believe that Foti can put this behind him quicker and turn his attention to club football. Baka’s age, career outlook, recent form, and weight of being the Ethniki captain may very well lead to the disappointment carrying over to club level. However, I don’t necessarily think this is going to be the case. Baka is a professional and has played through highs and lows in his career. Most recently, he was abruptly put out of the equation at Trabzonspor where for years he was a key player and helped lead them to their first league title in Turkey after a 38-year drought. This surely had a negative emotional effect and certainly hurt to have his time there end in such a way, but he quickly showed that he can bounce back and put it behind him. He quickly made the move to Panathinaikos happen mid-season and picked up right away, showing his worth immediately in front of the Green fans with a streak of influential performances. This, coupled with guidance from Terim, shows to me that he can effectively return to Panathinaikos without too much weight from the national team, with Ioannidis and Zeca alongside him. If anything, all three could even turn the Ethniki blow into a big motivational boost, fueling them to win one or even both trophies that are on the line with PAO, so that their 2023-24 season can end in a success and further put the Euro absence behind them.

- Alex (@alexcv08)